Japan's economy is recovering, the government said in its monthly report Tuesday, keeping unchanged its overall assessment while noting some weakness in industrial production.
The government has kept its report on the economy basically the same since April, amid a gradual recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.
May's industrial production was revised to a weaker-than-expected 0.3 percent drop from April, with drops seen in electronic components, digital camera-related information and telecommunications, according to the Cabinet Office.
Offsetting that was a more positive view from the Bank of Japan's "tankan" quarterly survey of business sentiment, which showed that confidence at major Japanese companies remained the same as three months ago. But it also showed that major companies plan to increase boost capital investment by 7.7 percent over the fiscal year that started in April.
There have also been some positives signs in capital spending and exports, the report said.
The government also kept the same its assessment on private consumption, which had raised some concern in the past, saying consumption appears to be picking up.
B. Japanese spending will collapse the global economy
John Makin, former consultant to the U.S. Treasury, the Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund, specializes in international finance and financial markets (stocks, bonds, and currencies including the Euro and the U.S. dollar), researches the U.S. economy (including monetary policy, tax and budget issues), the Japanese economy and European economies, author of AEI's monthly Economic Outlook, 2000
( “Japan battles the paradox of thrift”, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.11715/pub_detail.asp)
Japanese households' preference for Japanese government bonds as the preferred asset, virtually by default, has further dangerous implications beyond reinforcing deflation. In effect, the Japanese government "bond market bubble" makes it nearly costless for the government to continue to finance dubious "stimulus packages." The problem is that the stimulus packages are being used to finance projects with no economic value. Many of the projects are simply pork barrel outlays by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to shore up its waning popularity in a weakening economy. And, as government spending increases while the nominal economy shrinks, tax revenues decrease as well. The resulting increase in deficits and government debt, which has now reached 10 percent of GDP for deficits and over 130 percent of GDP for debt (accumulated deficits), raises expectations of higher future taxes and thereby depresses consumption further. The reduction in consumption causes deflation to intensify and increases the demand for bonds, and the cycle begins all over again. This deflationary cycle borne out of a "paradox of fear" in Japan constitutes a serious threat to both the Japanese and global economies.
History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China-whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States-attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.
Associated Press, 07.17.07
(“Japan Leaves Assessment of Economy Same”, http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/07/17/ap3919761.html) [Ha]
Japan's economy is recovering, the government said in its monthly report Tuesday, keeping unchanged its overall assessment while noting some weakness in industrial production.
The government has kept its report on the economy basically the same since April, amid a gradual recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.
May's industrial production was revised to a weaker-than-expected 0.3 percent drop from April, with drops seen in electronic components, digital camera-related information and telecommunications, according to the Cabinet Office.
Offsetting that was a more positive view from the Bank of Japan's "tankan" quarterly survey of business sentiment, which showed that confidence at major Japanese companies remained the same as three months ago. But it also showed that major companies plan to increase boost capital investment by 7.7 percent over the fiscal year that started in April.
There have also been some positives signs in capital spending and exports, the report said.
The government also kept the same its assessment on private consumption, which had raised some concern in the past, saying consumption appears to be picking up.
B. Japanese spending will collapse the global economy
John Makin, former consultant to the U.S. Treasury, the Congressional Budget Office, and the International Monetary Fund, specializes in international finance and financial markets (stocks, bonds, and currencies including the Euro and the U.S. dollar), researches the U.S. economy (including monetary policy, tax and budget issues), the Japanese economy and European economies, author of AEI's monthly Economic Outlook, 2000
( “Japan battles the paradox of thrift”, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.11715/pub_detail.asp)
Japanese households' preference for Japanese government bonds as the preferred asset, virtually by default, has further dangerous implications beyond reinforcing deflation. In effect, the Japanese government "bond market bubble" makes it nearly costless for the government to continue to finance dubious "stimulus packages." The problem is that the stimulus packages are being used to finance projects with no economic value. Many of the projects are simply pork barrel outlays by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to shore up its waning popularity in a weakening economy. And, as government spending increases while the nominal economy shrinks, tax revenues decrease as well. The resulting increase in deficits and government debt, which has now reached 10 percent of GDP for deficits and over 130 percent of GDP for debt (accumulated deficits), raises expectations of higher future taxes and thereby depresses consumption further. The reduction in consumption causes deflation to intensify and increases the demand for bonds, and the cycle begins all over again. This deflationary cycle borne out of a "paradox of fear" in Japan constitutes a serious threat to both the Japanese and global economies.
C. Economic decline risks extinction
Tom Bearden, Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army, 2000
(http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3aaf97f22e23.htm)
History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China-whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States-attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.